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《大行》招商證券:三大原因致醫藥板塊近期跑輸大市 行業首選信達生物(01801.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)及康諾亞(02162.HK)
招商證券國際發表報告指,自5月至今,恒生生物科技指數相較恒生指數跑輸約1,300個基點,成為最大拖累板塊,也標誌行業進入低迷階段。該行將近期港股醫藥/生物科技板塊顯著跑輸的原因歸納為三點:流動性約束、BD合作政策不確定性提升、以及部分臨床資產的估值下修。宏觀層面,在市場兩級分化加劇的背景下,流動性持續流向AI主題,帶動相關板塊顯著跑贏,而其他板塊則出現顯著的...
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《大行》招商證券:三大原因致醫藥板塊近期跑輸大市 行業首選信達生物(01801.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)及康諾亞(02162.HK)
Recommend
14
Positive
16
Negative
10
 
 

招商證券國際發表報告指,自5月至今,恒生生物科技指數相較恒生指數跑輸約1,300個基點,成為最大拖累板塊,也標誌行業進入低迷階段。該行將近期港股醫藥/生物科技板塊顯著跑輸的原因歸納為三點:流動性約束、BD合作政策不確定性提升、以及部分臨床資產的估值下修。

宏觀層面,在市場兩級分化加劇的背景下,流動性持續流向AI主題,帶動相關板塊顯著跑贏,而其他板塊則出現顯著的估值壓縮。其次,中國創新藥海外BD交易面臨政策不確定性上升。先有美國眾議院中國問題特別委員會主席John Moolenaar正提議將生物科技相關技術納入《COINS法案》,限制知識產權跨境許可,並特別指出包括百時美施貴寶在內的跨國藥企,近期正加大與中國企業開展對外授權及聯合開發合作。

從自下而上的角度來看,5月底在芝加哥進行的ASCO 2026會議上康方生物(09926.HK)  -5.000 (-5.028%)    Short selling $155.08M; Ratio 18.141%   核心管線AK-112的臨床數據披露,在全球腫瘤學界之間引發了對數據解讀口徑的分歧與爭議。結合短期市場低迷情緒,相關腫瘤雙抗及三抗公司回調幅度明顯。

報告指,康方生物在ASCO 2026大會上公布了Harmoni-6研究的中期數據。這項試驗在中國本土開展,其數據讀出受到投資者高度關注。部分西方腫瘤專家對其試驗設計提出質疑,包括患者入組標準(男性佔比較高,女性僅約7%)、對照組選擇以及方案中預設的排除標準等。這些來自西方醫學界的嚴格審視與質疑,為後續康方/Summit在同一類型肺癌中的全球註冊性三期臨床Harmoni-3研究前景蒙上一定陰影。會議討論階段,專家對H6試驗到H3的潛在適用性持審慎態度,認為該中期數據尚不成熟、對照組生存表現高於基準,提出樣本結構上的偏向等問題。該行認為,Harmoni-6研究充分驗證採用包含VEGF靶點的雙特異性抗體所帶來的無進展生存期優勢,有望在鱗狀非小細胞肺癌中轉化為總生存期獲益。然而,中西方醫生對同一數據的解讀出現分歧,凸顯了中國創新藥出海面臨的下一階段核心挑戰。

該行認為,近期宏觀擾動與板塊波動,為長期投資者逢低佈局優質中國生物醫藥龍頭提供了良好機會。首選信達生物(01801.HK)  +0.300 (+0.393%)    Short selling $228.19M; Ratio 38.280%   、翰森製藥(03692.HK)  -0.500 (-1.678%)    Short selling $17.88M; Ratio 19.983%   及康諾亞(02162.HK)  -0.400 (-0.677%)    Short selling $11.03M; Ratio 9.039%   。同時亦關注尚未覆蓋的康方生物和恒瑞醫藥(01276.HK)  +0.900 (+1.687%)    Short selling $16.19M; Ratio 8.307%   。(ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-05 12:25.)

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