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《大行》美銀證券一舉升中廣核電力(01816.HK)評級至「買入」 續看淡華能(00902.HK)、華電(01071.HK)及龍源(00916.HK)
美銀證券發表報告,指較高的能源價格、厄爾尼諾現象及直接供電模式帶動了獨立發電商板塊表現,過去一個月相關H股平均上升約15%,其中以火電股領漲。然而,該行認為煤炭成本上升的影響將超過潛在的電價上調,導致火電盈利下降,而當前估值已反映電價持平或溫和上漲的預期。綠色電力直接供應規模仍然太小,且經濟效益存在不確定性,難以支撐盈利。因此,該行維持對華能(00902.H...
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《大行》美銀證券一舉升中廣核電力(01816.HK)評級至「買入」 續看淡華能(00902.HK)、華電(01071.HK)及龍源(00916.HK)
Recommend
6
Positive
11
Negative
5
 
 

美銀證券發表報告,指較高的能源價格、厄爾尼諾現象及直接供電模式帶動了獨立發電商板塊表現,過去一個月相關H股平均上升約15%,其中以火電股領漲。然而,該行認為煤炭成本上升的影響將超過潛在的電價上調,導致火電盈利下降,而當前估值已反映電價持平或溫和上漲的預期。綠色電力直接供應規模仍然太小,且經濟效益存在不確定性,難以支撐盈利。因此,該行維持對華能(00902.HK)  -0.190 (-2.606%)    Short selling $248.58M; Ratio 38.141%   、華電(01071.HK)  -0.340 (-7.054%)    Short selling $14.94M; Ratio 13.580%   及龍源(00916.HK)  -0.290 (-4.335%)    Short selling $15.72M; Ratio 11.144%   「跑輸大市」評級。

該行對核電盈利復甦更有信心,並基於政策支持電價、可控的燃料成本以及具吸引力的估值,將中廣核電力(01816.HK)  -0.090 (-2.839%)    Short selling $45.58M; Ratio 31.576%   A股及H股投資評級由「跑輸大市」一舉升級至「買入」,H股目標價由3港元升至3.9港元。中廣核電力(003816.SZ)  -0.180 (-3.991%)   A股目標價由3.7元人民幣升至5元人民幣。

該行在早前另一份報告表示,國家氣象局表示厄爾尼諾現象可能導致全國氣溫較往常偏高,儘管目前6至7月的天氣預報仍低於平均水準。預測6月降雨量將較去年同期減少。炎熱乾燥的夏季可能支撐電力需求,尤其是火電。

自4月以來,較高的能源價格和天氣因素推高了現貨電價,主要在華南地區。但這些電價正在趨緩,全國趨勢仍存在分歧。山西煤礦事故後,煤價持續高企的時間可能延長,或將推高月度電價及可能的2027年度合約電價,但該行認為火電盈利將下降,因為現貨加合約電價仍在下跌,加上煤價上漲而煤炭庫存低於平均。該行認為目前0.9至1.4倍的市賬率對火電獨立發電商的股東權益回報率定價過於樂觀,隱含今年電價持平或溫和上漲。

市場對數據中心及大型電力用戶的直接供電機會也轉趨樂觀。雖然該行同意AI對電力需求帶來上行風險,但該行認為直接供電主要有利於新增(而非現有)可再生能源項目,且只有在電價能低於電網連接電價時才可行。該行認為在低電價地區(通常有較多過剩綠色電力)並未見到顯著的成本節省。

美銀證券稱,對核電盈利復甦更有信心。近期政策實際上為2026年兩個省份的核電電價設定了下限,且很可能明年擴展至其他省份。中廣核電力管理層對燃料成本較為樂觀,指出未來五年將上升10%至15%。該行對其2027年的淨利潤預測比市場共識高出8%,並面臨年度合約的上行風險。在約12倍2027年中預期市盈率下,風險回報對該行而言具吸引力,且與其他H股獨立發電商相比,市盈率溢價大致符合平均46%的水準,低於先前超過100%的溢價。該行也認為核電項目審批速度存在上行風險。(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-05 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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