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《大行》里昂:美伊暫停火及霍爾木茲海峽重開 建議重新增加週期性配置
里昂發表報告表示,就美國與伊朗同意停火兩周,伊朗同意開放霍爾木茲海峽,美國總統特朗普亦獲得了「下台階」,該行重新增加曝險(add back risk)。該行指,美伊14天的停火可能不足以讓海灣出口國有信心將產量恢復至戰前水平,但至少能釋放被困在海峽後方的貨物,帶來急需的緩解。雙方都有動機在兩週後繼續談判,但該行預期雙方會盡力測試對方底線。儘管如此,該行決定撤...
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《大行》里昂:美伊暫停火及霍爾木茲海峽重開 建議重新增加週期性配置
Recommend
12
Positive
38
Negative
18
 
 

里昂發表報告表示,就美國與伊朗同意停火兩周,伊朗同意開放霍爾木茲海峽,美國總統特朗普亦獲得了「下台階」,該行重新增加曝險(add back risk)。

該行指,美伊14天的停火可能不足以讓海灣出口國有信心將產量恢復至戰前水平,但至少能釋放被困在海峽後方的貨物,帶來急需的緩解。雙方都有動機在兩週後繼續談判,但該行預期雙方會盡力測試對方底線。儘管如此,該行決定撤回戰爭爆發後採取的「防禦」立場,重新回到基準配置:中國內地市場「基準配置」,台灣地區「10%低配」,韓國「15%超配」,澳洲「20%低配」,印度降至「10%超配」,新加坡「基準配置」,馬來西亞「低配30%」,與其他東盟市場(泰國、印尼及菲律賓)一致。而香港市場「20%超配」。

該行指,特朗普早前曾威脅伊朗領導層若不接受他的「和平」提案,或消滅整個伊朗文明,今次結果顯示出其明顯的挫敗感,其對德黑蘭施壓的「空中選項」逐漸耗盡,剩下的目標是摧毀民用基礎設施,但這在《日內瓦公約》下屬於戰爭罪行,而電廠和橋樑又被組織成人盾。衝突的代價比特朗普最初估計的更高:15名美軍陣亡,300多人受傷,民調創新低,美國汽油均價超過每加侖4.1美元,損失43架飛機(包括4架F-15E和2架C-130,因敵火和友軍誤擊),以及許多昂貴的雷達設施,再加上美國在盟友間的地位受損等無形代價。特朗普得到了「下台階」。

巴基斯坦斡旋的兩週停火立即生效,但伊朗希望的終局不僅是確保免於進一步攻擊,還包括某種形式的補償(解除制裁和聯合國決議、某種賠償、對海峽徵收通行費以籌資)。伊朗無疑察覺到特朗普急於脫身,但在某些紅線上(核濃縮、美國區域基地的存在),特朗普(及/或內塔尼亞胡)可能會堅持。伊朗遭受了實質打擊,特朗普則是面臨政治打擊,因此雙方都有動機尋求解決方案。但若談判失敗,美國可能採取被視為違反國際法的行動,甚至入侵。

隨著停火,里昂表示重新增加週期性配置,因為若等到最終和平協議達成再行調整就太遲了,但該行指泰國、菲律賓和越南在其的評分表上仍是最脆弱的市場。(wl/da)

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